I had supported the candidacy of Trump in 2016 elections as he had proposed lot of good ideas back then and one being to break up monopolies in American economy. As compared to Hillary Clinton, Trump was definitely a much better choice for any rational American. Hence, Despite Hillary’s attempt to hijack the candidacy from Bernie Sanders in primaries, she lost miserably to Trump and she is sure to loose again …if she stands against anybody else in 2020. I hope she does not stand again if she understandss the real reason that Americans preferred Trump over Clinton.
I expected Trump to really do something for ordinary working class Americans after getting elected. However, Since his elections, Trump has firstly surrounded himself with a cabinet of elites, who might perhaps not do anything significant for working class Americans during their tenure. Trump has also started to lose his Charisma. Given the recent events, I would think twice about endorsing Trump due to excessive use of “Nationalism” by Trump. In that regard, Trump could learn something from the “Nationalism” of India’s Narendra Modi.
Since his election in 2014, Modi has been considering himself to be some kind of a Rock Star. The support base of Modi was so strong in 2014 that he did a few things unquestioned and unopposed, which have proven to be disastrous for Indian economy. He convinced his supporters that he was doing these things in the name of “Nationalism”. Firstly, Modi got rid of most of the top intellectuals in the government who were doing a phenomenal job in the respective positions. To name a few, it included some very well-known and famous personalities such as
- Nuclear Scientist – Anil Kakodar as Chairman of IIT Bombay
- R K Shevgaonkar – IIT Delhi Chairman
- Raghuram Rajan – RBI Governor
The list is very long but these are some of top intellectuals who were quite respected and all of them were forced to resign by the government. The supporters of Modi, who are known as “Modi Bhakts”, supported all such stupid moves of Modi government in the name of “Nationalism”. It was not long that in February 2015 itself I realized that Modi government is going to lead India into a terrible economic crisis. This started with the appointment of Arvind Pangariya as Chief Economic Advisor to Narendra Modi and the resulting supply-side economic policies that were recommended by Arvind Pangariya.
Additionally, Modi had already started promoting his MAKE IN INDIA, which itself was one of the worst way to build Indian economy. I could foresee the crisis MAKE IN INDIA is going to bring to India. Hence, In January 2015, I compared the failure of Irish economic planning and Chinese economic planning and what India could expect from MAKE IN INDIA in an article A Crouching Tiger & Slackening Dragon Teach a Roaring Lion Macroeconomics.
The budget of 2015 was disastrous as they reduced the corporate income tax from 30% to 25%. However, they did not find a way to fix the deficit that would be created by the loss of 5% tax revenue. Then they passed the GST and demonetization which sharped raised taxes on small business owners and starting raising the inflation in economy. The demonetization was actually aimed at helping outside multinationals to make business from a digital economy, but it hurt the common man in India. Small businesses started closing doors. However, None of the big businesses faced any major problems. Hence, the ones to suffer from Modi’s policies were poor citizens of India. The demonetization had another harmful effect of further increasing black money in India alongwith indirect growth in Inflation. This has been explained in my following articles which were widely popular on LinkedIn.
I started realizing that I had to take a chance as my analysis suggested me that Indian economy could perhaps head for a collapse due to MAKE IN INDIA policies. I also wrote an article about it in August 2015 entitled Make In India Could Collapse Indian Economy
When RBI governor Raghuram Rajan was forced to resign, I knew that this government does not understand anything about macroeconomics but they are also unaware that in the process of making MAKE IN INDIA happen, they are selling out India to outsiders. While Macroeconomics is a subject which is not so easy to comprehend, I received frequent criticisms from several “Modi Bhakts” on LinkedIn. However, If you look at what is happening today in India, the economic collapse now seems inevitable and my forecast about Modi’s disastrous defeat in 2019 elections made in June 2017 is sure to come true.
Hence, Based on my analysis of Modinomics, I can say that Trump needs to focus on boosting purchasing power of Americans. He can achieve that without help of members of congress with Professor Ravi Batra’s 2015 volume End Unemployment Now: How to eliminate Joblessness, Debt and Poverty DESPITE CONGRESS. It is really sad to see that instead of focusing on growth of consumer purchasing power, Trump has been focused on repealing Obamacare and giving tax cuts. Neither of these are going to achieve the goal of boosting consumer purchasing power in the economy through the growth in real wages. He could instead make Obamacare sustainable by breaking the behemoth of insurance industry oligopolies.
Also, Some Trump supporters are actually behaving like “Modi Bhakts” of India. The ‘Nationalism’ of Modi has proven to be extremely dangerous for India as lot of wrong things happened under the guise of Nationalism. I am sure that Modi is NEVER going to be elected again as Prime Minister of India. In fact, His political career is most likely coming to an end as three years of disastrous performance by Modi government shows that Modi neither understands business nor does he understand economics. Modi had even said that if Demonetization fails after 50 days, he would be willing to get punished for his deeds. Well, I am sure Modi seems to have forgotten that he had offered to burn him “Alive” if Demonetization fails.
Well, Demonetization has disastrously failed, I wonder is Modi should be reminded of his promise to nation because several citizens also lost their lives due to demonetization and it really did not do anything to weed out the Black money from Indian economy as explained in my article above. Watch the crocodile tears of Modi in the below video, we had seen similar crocodile tears even during his US townhall at Facebook headquarters. I believe that Indian citizens have become lot smarter now and they have realized that Modi has been duping them for last 3 years with such emotional blackmail.
It would be best if Trumponomics learns from failure of Modinomics else it will be too late and yesterday’s election victory of Roy Moore in Alabama is an evidence that Trump has started losing his charisma and by 2018 midterm elections, he is sure to loose much more support base due to his present economic policies. This is my forecast for Trumponomics. Trump can make America great again ONLY he brings back free markets where wages of Americans start to grow in proportion to their hard work. All other economic policies like Tax Cuts are nothing but short term palliatives and not sustainable long term solutions. A failure to do above would not only ensure a big loss of his support base by 2018 midterms but would also ensure his defeat in 2020.
Trump would greatly benefit from my upcoming book NEW MACROECONOMICS -I. I have used some of the data from 2017 economic report to the President to present my analysis and help his economic advisers understand why US needs NEW MACROECONOMICS. I hope Trump supporters would also learn how “Modi Supporters (Bhakts)” are today laughed at for supporting Modi’s irrational ideas which have actually ruined Indian economy in last 3 years.
Author biography: Apek Mulay is a Business and Technology Consultant at Mulay’s Consultancy Services. He is author of several books including Mass Capitalism: A Blueprint for Economic Revival, Sustaining Moore’s Law: Uncertainty Leading to a Certainty of IoT Revolution, How Information Revolution remade the Business and the Economy: A Roadmap for Progress of Semiconductor Industry and New Macroeconomics-I. He pursued undergraduate studies in Electronics Engineering (EE) at the University of Mumbai, India and has completed master’s degree in EE at Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX. Mulay is presently pursuing his second Master’s degree in Business Analytics at The University of Texas at Dallas. Mulay authored a patent ‘Surface Imaging with Materials Identified by Colors’ during his employment in Advanced CMOS technology development team at Texas Instruments Inc. He has chaired technical sessions at International Symposium for Testing and Failure Analysis (ISTFA) in 2009, 2010 and 2016. USCIS approved his US permanent residency under the category of foreign nationals with extraordinary abilities in science and technologies even though he did not pursue a PhD degree in engineering or economics. He has been cited as an ‘Engineer-cum-Economist’ by superstar economist Professor Ravi Batra in his 2015 Volume ‘End Unemployment Now: How to Eliminate Poverty, Debt and Joblessness despite Congress’. He has appeared on National Radio shows, made Cover Stories in several Industry magazines, authored articles for newspapers as well as several reputed blogs & industry publications. He has also been invited on several Television shows (because of his accurate macroeconomic forecasts) for his ideas about Mass Capitalism. He is also a social entrepreneur and an investing partner in an e-commerce business http://calcuttahandicraft.in/ which he started to envision his ideas based on collaboration that he explains in his book Mass Capitalism. His blog is www.ApekMulay.com