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Mass Capitalism’s Author forecasts a depression in 2019 at The Press Club, Mumbai

On 21st February 2019, I released my book “Mass Capitalism: A Blueprint for Economic Revival” in Marathi language. The event was held at The Press Club, Mumbai. The event last from 4:30 pm to 6:00 pm followed by Press Conference with reporters and book signing. The entire event was later replayed by Max Maharashtra Channel the following day. You can view the entire event in the video below

Amongst the invited guest, Mr. Prithviraj Chavan ( Former Chief Minister of Maharashtra ) and Mr. Bharatkumar Raut ( Member of Parliament) could not make it due to urgent meetings at last moment. They provided in writing their good wishes for this book launch. The book launch was anchored by Mr. Raja Patwardhan, who is also the editor of this book. The honorable guests present included Mr. H.M. Desarda ( Former member of Economic Planning Commission), Mr. Jairaj Salgaonkar ( Author, Economist and Businessman ), Mr. Kumar Ketkar ( Member of Parliament ) and Mr. Gautam Thakur ( Chairman of Saraswat Bank).

The press reporters from Maharastra Times, Navshakti Times, Times of India, Swabhimaan, TV9 , Doordarshan, etc. were present for media coverage at this event.

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From Left to Right in the above image – Mr. H.M. Desarda, Mr. Jairaj Salgaonkar, Mr. Gautam Thakur, Mr. Kumar Ketkar, Mr. Apek Mulay (Author), Mr. Raja Patwardhan (Editor) and Mr. Sudhakar Joshi (Publisher)

The speeches by all dignitaries were excellent but for the sake of this blog, I will mention some highlights of my speech in English as my speech was pertaining to electronics industry, macroeconomics and my latest forecast for 2019 and beyond.

Today, Governments around the world are struggling with an acute problem of unemployment and underemployment of youth. The economists are scared about technological progress and resulting unemployment. The venture capitalist from Taiwan, Kai Fu Lee has huge investments in Artificial Intelligence and is personally of the opinion that within next 10-15 years, there will be 40% growth in global unemployment due to Artificial Intelligence. Having realized this, Experts have started experimenting doles such as Universal Basic Income (UBI) as solution to this problem.

In 1929, When United States entered Great Depression, all economic ideas that were present had proven to be incorrect and had failed. In 1936, John Maynard Keynes observed world in midst of a deep depression and wrote his book “General Theory of Employment, Trade and Money” by challenging all economic ideas of past and putting forth completely new economic ideas. He recommended government spending and intervention to solve the economic depression which were considered to be radical ideas back then but Keynes observed that the depression was now in its 7th year. Eventually, United States and Global Economy came out of depression due to government spending for the war. But if you look at the cost of war, it costed $4 Trillion spent by government and approx. 40-100 million lives lost. Keynes was vindicated as he was proven right and his ideas started to become the basis of economy post world war II and the world hoped that a depression like 1929 will never happen again.

<<Fast Forward to 2008 >>

In 2008, When Barack Obama was elected as President, US was in midst of a horrible economic crisis. At that time, all major media and publications were discussing what President Obama can learn from President Franklin Roosevelt. Even economic advisors of President Obama were Nobel Laurette economists like Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz who were promoters of Keynesian Economic ideas. Like the world war II spending, for the 8 years of Obama, a total of $14 trillion dollars was spent and job creation was not significant. On average, During Obama years, 1 job was created in an economy by spending $1 million where the average annual pay for a job is approximately $ 50,000. So, the question is where did rest of the money go? It went into the pockets of extremely rich people in the United States ( also called the 1 % ). This was exactly was Keynes had opposed.

Hence, Based on what has happened, I am confident that any government spending done in the name of UBI will further the poverty and economic disparity. Even in its 2019 Budget, Indian government announced doles of INR 72,000 per year for its farmers and many other doles too. These things are just Band-Aid and they are not sustainable.

India also has a growing problem of trade deficits from imported electronics. Today, Indians are also facing problems getting H1B visa in the U.S. due to strict immigration policies. I knew this beforehand in 2014 and hence I had suggested to Government of India back then that India should focus on “ Make for India” instead of  “Make In India”. Even in “Make In India”, there is still only assembly of consumer electronics that happens, the semiconductor technology and chips are still being imported from abroad contributing to India’s growing trade deficits. President Trump got elected because all the Keynesian economic ideas during Obama years has failed to solve the problem of poverty and unemployment.

Because of President Trump’s policies a new trade war has started between US and China. Even President Trump’s policies are focusing on solving only Trade Deficits. America’s growing Budget deficits are completely ignored. Hence, My forecast is that 2019 ( which means this year ), U.S. will enter into economic depression like 1929. Hence, Not only the U.S. but also India needs new ideas to come out of economic depression. Hence, New ideas are needed not only for the revival of US economy but also for Indian economy. One thing I can ensure is that if technological progress continues and my ideas based on free markets are implemented, there will be start of a new golden age in US as well as global economy.

Please watch the videos below where I explain why 2019 is not just a year of economic depression but also a revolutionary year for global economy.

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