Exactly 28 years ago, on 19th October 1987, Professor Ravi Batra had become world famous personality for correctly forecasting the crash of 1987. I was mere 7 years old then and had no background, interest or knowledge about Macroeconomics.
Today, I had an opportunity to chat with him about his memories of that fateful day and also what lies ahead for our economy. Professor Batra was very kind enough to give me his time. He did mention to me that my second book “Sustaining Moore’s Law: Uncertainty Leading to A Certainty of IoT Revolution” looks great…good work on that ( I recently mailed him an author’s copy of my second book as he was kind enough to write a FOREWORD for my second book)
I won’t waste more of your time discussing our casual conversation but would like to come to the point as to where we are today and where we would be heading in near future. I wanted to check with him about my forecasts and their accuracy. I asked him that I had forecasted pretty accurately about the fall of stock markets in July 2015 and also forecasted about a Black Monday like 1987 by this October 2015. While I was correct with my July forecast given the things that started with Greece and Crash of Chinese stock markets, I was also invited on a popular Indian Television Program on BLACK MONDAY, 24 August 2015.
While both my forecasts have been accurate, I am not sure if I will be accurate about an economic collapse starting this October 2015 although one thing is obvious that things are slowing down at tremendous pace now. To my knowledge some major semiconductor industry players have up to 10 weeks of stockpiled inventories which is worrisome and shows lack of economic demand. What do you think about my forecast about crash by end of October 2015?
Ravi Batra : If you look at what happened during great depression, although the crash occurred in 1929…the actual depression started in 1931. Hence, You were correct about Crash starting around July and Crash of China’s stock markets is very similar to the crash of 1929. However, This would take sometime like it took during 1929 great depression to show up on global scale. I would say it would be sometime in 2016 that we would see everything just start to erupt. But, As long as the businesses and politicians are able to restore a free market economy, the eventual long depression can be avoided and economy can be quickly revived.
Conclusion – My forecasts were accurate but I would be proven wrong about collapse starting by end of October 2015 as per Professor Ravi Batra. Thank You Dr. Batra for your valuable time.