Today, 22nd December 2017, President Donald J Trump signed into a law a massive tax overhaul. I also just finished my new book “New Macroeconomics” with Business Expert Press and now my book is being converted into an e-book and will be available in January 2018. The print version would be available subsequently. So, it is not a mere co-incidence that both these events occurred at the same time. In this blog, we shall try to understand whether these massive “Tax Cuts” will lead to a revival of American Economy?
“New Macroeconomics” is my fourth book and I have accomplished a monumental task of completing this 4th book in fourth consecutive year. Mass Capitalism (2014), Sustaining Moore’s Law (2015), How the Information Revolution Remade the Business and the Economy (2016) and finally “New Macroeconomics” (2017) is my latest and the best book that I have authored so far. In this book, I have one complete chapter on the future of Tech Industry and Trump’s “Tax Overhaul” has a special significance in this regard.
The massive tax cuts are going to raise the optimism of the stock market. Hence, we could see the stock market soar to new highs. In chapter “Stock Market and Macroeconomics” of New Macroeconomics, I have explained the impacts of macroeconomic policies on the stock market. However, it is not all very rosy scenario. In December 2017, we also observed Obama era rules of Net Neutrality repealed by the new FCC chair, Ajit Pai. Well, that decision also has a lot of significance on the expected growth of stock market.
In December 2014, I authored an article for Tech Radar about Net Neutrality and back then I had endorsed President Obama’s regulations because U.S. does not have Free Market Capitalism. Hence, I am forecasting that since US does not have free market capitalism as of today, the repeal of Net Neutrality will further strengthen the Internet monopolies and will lead to less innovations and growing dominance of a few companies hurting the growth of small businesses due to lack of competition.
The “Tax Overhaul” will have the similar impact on the Tech Industry like what we observed during President Ronald Reagan’s Tax overhaul back in 1980s. Everything is covered in depth in my book “New Macroeconomics” but I can forecast that just like Intel had to shutdown its factories back in 1985 after tax cuts went into effect in 1981, tech industry would see a similar crisis in the very near future. The optimism of growth in stock market would last maximum until October 2018 after which US could see a real depression like the 1930s. The reason for this is the lack of competition in U.S. economy which fuels efficiency and economic growth.
While I had endorsed President Trump during his 2016 campaign, I am very sad to see the macroeconomic policies that are being endorsed by the President. In February 2017, I have done a face-to-face Interview with Economist Ravi Batra “Trumponomics on Trial”. Please watch the complete Interview below
Hence, my forecast is that the stock market and the tech industry would see huge optimism from this Tax Overhaul. The Bitcoin and block chain frenzy that is driving the stock market mimics that dot-dot.com bubble and US stock market is headed for a huge rise in short run. However, Since the real fundamentals of macroeconomic growth are absent in Trumponomics, we would experience a worst crash in stock market under his Presidency either towards the end of 2018 or in early 2019. To understand more details about why Trumponomics would be bad in long run for the US economy in terms of keeping US national debt under control, you have to read my new book “New Macroeconomics” where I have analyzed the works of several economists like Adam Smith, J.B. Say, John Maynard Keynes, A.W. Phillips, Milton Friedman, Karl Marx, Arthur Laffer, Joseph Stiglitz, Paul Krugman, Jeffrey Sachs, Ravi Batra and many others to make it unique book like no other every written.