After a humiliating defeat in 1962 War, India should have learnt a very important lesson which is to not trust its Communist neighbour. Watching at the recent confrontation of troops at INDO-CHINA border, I believe that both countries are heading for another armed conflict. This has not just to do with the territorial ambitions of China but China is also looking to prove its total dominance in Asia.
Well, Any armed conflict with China would also mean an armed conflict with Pakistan. Well, In a recent article India’s army chief, Bipin Rawat, has said that India is ready to fight a “two and half front war” – referring to Pakistan, China and against the country’s various internal insurgencies. I have authored several articles on this topic and although I personally believe that an armed conflict between both India and China is inevitable, strategic planning is much more important for India if it wishes to come out victorious or suffer minimal damages during this impending war.
Firstly, I am very disappointed with the present policies of the government of India which have not done anything significant to improve purchasing power of domestic economy since May 2014. Hence, Macroeconomic point of view, Indian economy would suffer severe blow with any armed conflict that lasts for more than a month. Now, Having sufficient troops across the border or most recent weaponry is not the sole thing that wins a war. To understand how a war is won, Indian government and think tanks should understand not just how wars are won but also how wars can be won without firing a single bullet. For this it needs a comprehensive understanding of history and its impacts of macro-economy when it comes to designing a strategy.
While MAKE IN INDIA has proven to be a failure given the global economic slowdown, if Indian government is not careful about how it deals with China, It would have a long term impacts on the geo-politics in Asia. Exactly more than a year ago in June 2016, I had questioned about the possibility of a new war between India and China. Please read WILL CHINA INVADE INDIA IN NEAR FUTURE? Well, Indian government would have certainly been aware of this but the way India has managed its economy from June 2016 to June 2017, I can say that India stands very vulnerable to support a two and half front war. Well, In June 2016 , INDIAN economy also received another blow with the departure of Raghuram Rajan as its RBI governor.
I had published an article back in October 2016 which was circulated and well appreciated on LinkedIn entitled Can RBI help India in its war on terror cells in Pakistan? Well, Little has the Modi government paid heed to any new ideas but they continue on their mission of useless policies like imposing Hindi as National language and having it in passport, continuing to give huge tax incentives to lure FDIs into India. Well, Lot of times Raghuram Rajan had mentioned that Modi government is trying to clone MAKE IN INDIA based on Chinese economic model. The contest between Mr. Modi and Raghuram Rajan almost became a grand tug of war between Chaiwalanomics and Dosanomics. However, As an author on books on macroeconomics, I personally believe that MAKE IN INDIA was a failure to begin with and was supposed to fail. In fact, I have cautioned Indian government about it in an article published in January 2015 entitled A Crouching Tiger & Slackening Dragon Teach a Roaring Lion Macroeconomics. I became more confident of my analysis after observing the crash of China’s stock markets in August 2015 and authored my next bold article Make In India Could Collapse Indian Economy. Well, the three years of Modi government policies have been disastrous for Indian economy and India can certainly not withstand a long conflict with China as fighting war also needs money and that comes from purchasing power of Citizens and circulation of currency in economy.
If India wants to fight a war with China and come out victorious from this war, Macroeconomic planning is very critical for Indian economy else the pains would be horrible for Indian economy. Indian government officials need to understand that winning a war does not need just a strong military but it needs a good financial power and a great war strategy. Indian government should not even be aware of the four different powers that exist in the world viz. Physical, Financial, Intellectual and Spiritual. Military constitutes the Physical Power, Macroeconomy constitutes the Financial Power, Brain power constitutes the Intellectual Power and although India is land of Spirituality and there are hardly few who follow a practical spiritual path in India. Please do read my blog here to understand why the subtler the power, more powerful it is.
Hence, If you compare the two countries India and China, China beats India hands down in their military power and financial power. However, India can still beat China if they have the right strategy and ofcourse if there is a grace of a higher spiritual power on the land of spirituality, that would save Indian economy. Now, the first thing for Indian government to do is the dump all the intellectuals in the government who have ruined the Indian economy since May 2014 and get new intellectuals on board who know what is to be done to save the economy from its doldrums. I am certain that next Indo-China war would be a disaster for Indian economy and it would perhaps also cause a tremendous hardship to Indian citizens.
A failure to do above suggested would not only lead to a humiliating defeat for India and demoralize the Indian citizens but even Prime Minister Modi would have to order the breaking up of the strategically critical but longest bridge of India that connects Assam to Arunachal Pradesh in order to avoid the march of Chinese troops into Indian soil due to an impending collapse of Indian economy. Well, India cannot even depend on the US economy as US is so much indebted to China that perhaps US might be reluctant to come to rescue of India due to withholding of US sovereign debt by China. Hence, Indian citizens would perhaps have to depend on a higher spiritual power to save the country if a war breaks out between India and China in the very near future and Indian economy heads for a crash due to poor macroeconomic policies of Indian government.
As an Indian citizen and someone who has been concerned about future of Indian economy, I can only hope the higher power gives some brain power to Modi government to avoid bringing about a total economic collapse of Indian economy with their policies and saves India in its next armed conflict with China in the very near future.
About the Author
Apek Mulay is Business and Technology Consultant at Mulay’s Consultancy Services. He is also a senior analyst and macroeconomist in US Semiconductor Industry. He is author of book “Mass Capitalism: A Blueprint for Economic Revival“. This book is available to be ordered as an autographed copy by the author on his blog. His first book was released nationwide in USA on 17 October 2014 and is available in e-book format as well as Audio book. Mass Capitalism in Marathi language will be released in Mumbai in 2018. Please read book reviews from several experts across the world by clicking here. Mulay has authored hi second book “Sustaining Moore’s Law: Uncertainty Leading to a Certainty of IoT Revolution” with Morgan & Claypool available for purchase at Morgan & Claypool retail site. Mulay’s third volume with Business Expert Press Publications is entitled “How Information Revolution Remade the Business and the Economy : A Roadmap for Progresss of the Semiconductor Industry“. He has also authored a monograph on technology with Lambert Academic Publishing entitled “Improving Reliability of Tungsten Plug Via on an Integrated Circuitry: Process Flow in BiCMOS and CMOS Technology with Failure Analysis, Design of Experiments, Statistical Analysis and Wafer Maps“. Mulay is also working on his 4th volume with Business Experts Press entitled “The New Macroeconomics” to be released by December 2017. Read more about him at http://apekmulay.com/apek/